Thursday, October 2, 2008
First Quarter NFL Report
A quarter of the NFL season has been completed, and as usual I was wrong on quite a few of my predictions. My Raiders are as dysfunctional as ever, the Bills look like world beaters, Tom Brady is gone, and the Pats look average, and the Broncos look like a strong team. I know there are 12 games left, and anything can happen, but I think I am getting out of the prediction biz. This stuff is on the net for everyone to see, so I cannot hide from my predictions.
Friday, September 5, 2008
AFC North and AFC South
AFC North-Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Baltimore
The AFC North is a division in transition, with Pittsburgh and Baltimore both aging, and the Cleveland Browns looking to make a run for the division title. Pittsburgh is still the class of the division, but Baltimore is starting to suffer for it's inability to obtain offensive talent. The question mark in the division is Cleveland, who finished the season with a 10-6 record but missed the playoffs. Was 07 a fluke? My money is on Pittsburgh to take the division, with Cleveland possibly winning a wild card spot. Cincy and Baltimore have too many holes to compete. Cincy still has a terrible defense, and an unhappy Chad Johnson, errr Chad Ocho Cinco. Baltimore has a new coach, is starting a new qb this year, and the defense is a year older. Plus they have done nothing to upgrade the receiving core, which seems to be a theme in the NFL.
AFC South-Jacksonville, Indy, Tennessee, Houston
The AFC South is in my opinion the best division in the NFL. Jacksonville has improved their receiving core on paper, which should compliment one of the better running games in the league. David Garrard is an MVP candidate in my opinion, and the Jags already boast one of the stronger defenses. Indy has been the class of the division over the years, but I expect Jacksonville to finally overtake them. I can't put my finger on it, but Indy seems to be losing it's luster. Tennessee and Houston could flip flop as the Titans have failed once again to address a terrible receiving core. Tennessee should have taken notes from their division rivals, Jacksonville. Houston is seen as a team on the rise, but they still might be a little too young to challenge the big boys. I like the young pieces on defense, but I'm still not sold on Matt Schaub. He was injured a lot in 08, and his numbers were very similar to the backup Sage Rosenfels. I'm also not impressed with the Texans running game, so in my opinion they are still at least a year or two away from being a contender.
The AFC North is a division in transition, with Pittsburgh and Baltimore both aging, and the Cleveland Browns looking to make a run for the division title. Pittsburgh is still the class of the division, but Baltimore is starting to suffer for it's inability to obtain offensive talent. The question mark in the division is Cleveland, who finished the season with a 10-6 record but missed the playoffs. Was 07 a fluke? My money is on Pittsburgh to take the division, with Cleveland possibly winning a wild card spot. Cincy and Baltimore have too many holes to compete. Cincy still has a terrible defense, and an unhappy Chad Johnson, errr Chad Ocho Cinco. Baltimore has a new coach, is starting a new qb this year, and the defense is a year older. Plus they have done nothing to upgrade the receiving core, which seems to be a theme in the NFL.
AFC South-Jacksonville, Indy, Tennessee, Houston
The AFC South is in my opinion the best division in the NFL. Jacksonville has improved their receiving core on paper, which should compliment one of the better running games in the league. David Garrard is an MVP candidate in my opinion, and the Jags already boast one of the stronger defenses. Indy has been the class of the division over the years, but I expect Jacksonville to finally overtake them. I can't put my finger on it, but Indy seems to be losing it's luster. Tennessee and Houston could flip flop as the Titans have failed once again to address a terrible receiving core. Tennessee should have taken notes from their division rivals, Jacksonville. Houston is seen as a team on the rise, but they still might be a little too young to challenge the big boys. I like the young pieces on defense, but I'm still not sold on Matt Schaub. He was injured a lot in 08, and his numbers were very similar to the backup Sage Rosenfels. I'm also not impressed with the Texans running game, so in my opinion they are still at least a year or two away from being a contender.
AFC East and AFC West
AFC East-New England, Buffalo, NY Jets, Miami
The AFC East looks to be on the rebound after a few years of dominance by the New England Patriots. The Patriots looked very old in the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back from it. Look for Brady, Moss, and Company to take a step back this year, which after going undefeated in the 2007 regular season should be expected. Buffalo has a nice young group, but my concern is the receivers. Lee Evans is a star, but the rest of the core is nothing special. The return of Paul Posluszny, and the addition of Marcus Stroud should strengthen the defense. The Jets with the addition of Brett Favre at qb could be a dangerous team, but my expectations are not that high. Favre was able to participate in training camp, but I don't believe he will be truly comfortable with his teammates until mid season at the earliest. Miami is still a work in progress, and I would be shocked if they win more than 3 games. I have never really been impressed with Chad Pennington, and it doesn't help that his receiving core is probably the worst in the league. I expect Ricky Williams to get a lot of work, but he will see a lot of 8 men in the box looks from opposing defenses.
AFC West-San Diego, Oakland, Denver, Kansas City
San Diego has owned this division for the past few seasons, and I expect that trend to continue in 09. If they were going into the season healthy, they would be my pick as the AFC Champs, but Rivers, LT, Gates, plus Merriman are all recovering or dealing with injuries. They still should have enough to win a rebuilding division. Oakland should be much better in 09 compared to the last 5 seasons, but depth is a concern. The receiving core and oline are a concern, especially with a young inexperienced qb, but a strong running game should help take away some of the pressure. The key on defense is stopping the run, and the Raiders have a trio of 300+ pounders in the middle that should help the playmaking linebackers improve their 2008 league low ranking. Denver and Kansas City will battle for the cellar, but the difference is Kansas City seems to know they are rebuilding, while Denver seems to be retooling for a playoff run. Unfortunately, Denver does not have enough talent to compete for a playoff spot in the AFC.
The AFC East looks to be on the rebound after a few years of dominance by the New England Patriots. The Patriots looked very old in the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back from it. Look for Brady, Moss, and Company to take a step back this year, which after going undefeated in the 2007 regular season should be expected. Buffalo has a nice young group, but my concern is the receivers. Lee Evans is a star, but the rest of the core is nothing special. The return of Paul Posluszny, and the addition of Marcus Stroud should strengthen the defense. The Jets with the addition of Brett Favre at qb could be a dangerous team, but my expectations are not that high. Favre was able to participate in training camp, but I don't believe he will be truly comfortable with his teammates until mid season at the earliest. Miami is still a work in progress, and I would be shocked if they win more than 3 games. I have never really been impressed with Chad Pennington, and it doesn't help that his receiving core is probably the worst in the league. I expect Ricky Williams to get a lot of work, but he will see a lot of 8 men in the box looks from opposing defenses.
AFC West-San Diego, Oakland, Denver, Kansas City
San Diego has owned this division for the past few seasons, and I expect that trend to continue in 09. If they were going into the season healthy, they would be my pick as the AFC Champs, but Rivers, LT, Gates, plus Merriman are all recovering or dealing with injuries. They still should have enough to win a rebuilding division. Oakland should be much better in 09 compared to the last 5 seasons, but depth is a concern. The receiving core and oline are a concern, especially with a young inexperienced qb, but a strong running game should help take away some of the pressure. The key on defense is stopping the run, and the Raiders have a trio of 300+ pounders in the middle that should help the playmaking linebackers improve their 2008 league low ranking. Denver and Kansas City will battle for the cellar, but the difference is Kansas City seems to know they are rebuilding, while Denver seems to be retooling for a playoff run. Unfortunately, Denver does not have enough talent to compete for a playoff spot in the AFC.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
NFC East-Dallas, Philadelphia, NY Giants, Washington
Some people believe the NFC East is the strongest division in football. I think Dallas wins it easily, simply because they are the total package. The only weakness is Roy Williams in pass coverage, but the plan is to limit him to 1st and 2nd downs, which could work if this was 1970, and teams still played 3 yards and a cloud of dust football. Memo to Dallas, team's pass on any down in the 21st Century. Even with Roy Williams struggling in pass coverage, the defense should more than hold up it's end of the bargain. On offense the receiving core concerns me, but when TO lines up for a team, they more than likely will have success in the passing game. Philadelphia, like the rest of the division, has a lot of holes, but a healthy McNabb and Westbrook should more than help them win a lot of games. I think NY has lost too much in the offseason, and it would shock me if they contend for a playoff spot. The luster will wear off quick, and the sports radio idiots will soon start calling for Couglin and Manning's heads again. Washington is a good solid football team, and could possibly bump NY from the third spot, but I still have questions about Campbell at the quarterback position. I like the kid, and I believe he can be a pretty good starter eventually, but how many systems has this guy played in over the past 5 years. Can someone please let this guy grow in one system.
NFC West-Seattle, Arizona, San Francisco, St. Louis
Earlier, I mentioned that many people believe the NFC East is the strongest division in the NFL. Well, the NFC West is hands down the weakest. Seattle should win this one for about the 5th time in a row, with the only competition possibly coming from a young Arizona Cardinal team. Arizona is the more talented team from top to bottom, but their youth and inexperience might stop them from winning the division. I give the edge to Seattle based on experience, and not much else. Seattle's running game, receiving core, and offensive line are all question marks. The defense should be very solid, unless worn down by the offense's inability to move the ball. Arizona has drafted well over the past few seasons, and this could possibly be the season they finally take the next step to the playoffs. I like Kurt Warner as the starter, and he should be able to get the ball to Boldin and Fitzgerald regularly. Hopefully the Cardinal can open holes for Edge, and on the defensive side of the ball they have playmakers everywhere, including one of the most underrated players in the league in safety Adrian Wilson. SF and St. Louis will battle for the cellar. San Francisco has a solid defense, but even with the addition of the Mad Scientist (Mike Martz), the offense will struggle. St. Louis is the opposite, with a horrible defense, and a good solid offense, IF EVERYONE REMAINS HEALTHY. Look for both organizations to fire their coaches after another bad season.
Some people believe the NFC East is the strongest division in football. I think Dallas wins it easily, simply because they are the total package. The only weakness is Roy Williams in pass coverage, but the plan is to limit him to 1st and 2nd downs, which could work if this was 1970, and teams still played 3 yards and a cloud of dust football. Memo to Dallas, team's pass on any down in the 21st Century. Even with Roy Williams struggling in pass coverage, the defense should more than hold up it's end of the bargain. On offense the receiving core concerns me, but when TO lines up for a team, they more than likely will have success in the passing game. Philadelphia, like the rest of the division, has a lot of holes, but a healthy McNabb and Westbrook should more than help them win a lot of games. I think NY has lost too much in the offseason, and it would shock me if they contend for a playoff spot. The luster will wear off quick, and the sports radio idiots will soon start calling for Couglin and Manning's heads again. Washington is a good solid football team, and could possibly bump NY from the third spot, but I still have questions about Campbell at the quarterback position. I like the kid, and I believe he can be a pretty good starter eventually, but how many systems has this guy played in over the past 5 years. Can someone please let this guy grow in one system.
NFC West-Seattle, Arizona, San Francisco, St. Louis
Earlier, I mentioned that many people believe the NFC East is the strongest division in the NFL. Well, the NFC West is hands down the weakest. Seattle should win this one for about the 5th time in a row, with the only competition possibly coming from a young Arizona Cardinal team. Arizona is the more talented team from top to bottom, but their youth and inexperience might stop them from winning the division. I give the edge to Seattle based on experience, and not much else. Seattle's running game, receiving core, and offensive line are all question marks. The defense should be very solid, unless worn down by the offense's inability to move the ball. Arizona has drafted well over the past few seasons, and this could possibly be the season they finally take the next step to the playoffs. I like Kurt Warner as the starter, and he should be able to get the ball to Boldin and Fitzgerald regularly. Hopefully the Cardinal can open holes for Edge, and on the defensive side of the ball they have playmakers everywhere, including one of the most underrated players in the league in safety Adrian Wilson. SF and St. Louis will battle for the cellar. San Francisco has a solid defense, but even with the addition of the Mad Scientist (Mike Martz), the offense will struggle. St. Louis is the opposite, with a horrible defense, and a good solid offense, IF EVERYONE REMAINS HEALTHY. Look for both organizations to fire their coaches after another bad season.
NFL 2009 Predictions
Simple predictions for the 2009 NFL Season. No research, simply my thoughts using the little bit of information I picked up during the offseason.
NFC North-Minnesota, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit
Minnesota should win this division, because of the 2 headed monster at tailback, and the dominate left side of their offensive line. The Vikings also have a standout run defense with a strong interior, and the pass defense should improve with the addition of Jared Allen from KC providing quarterback pressure. Tavaris Jackson and the passing game is the key to consistent offensive success. Green Bay should finish second, even with the departure of Brett Favre. I strongly believe Minnesota is a stronger team, but Green Bay should give them a nice run. Chicago and Detroit both have too many weaknesses to contend. The Bears defense was not as strong last season, and the running game took a hit when Thomas Jones left 2 seasons ago. Good new is Rex Grossman is no longer the starter, and even an average Kyle Orton should be an upgrade. Detroit has a few good pieces, especially at receiver (Calvin Johnson/Roy Williams), but a journeyman at qb(Jon Kitna), and huge questions at running back. The defense took a big hit with the loss of Shaun Rogers, and we will see how that impacts the playmaking ability of LB Ernie Sims. Bottom line is, Chicago and Detroit will be battling for the cellar.
NFC South-New Orleans, Tampa, Carolina, Atlanta
New Orleans should easily win the NFC South based on their high powered offense. The defense will do just enough not to hurt the team success. The only weakness on the offense is the running game with Duece Mcallister recovering from major knee surgery again, and the ineffectiveness of Reggie Bush between the tackles, but the high powered passing game should be enough. The defense is led by a strong defensive line, and the addition of Jonathan Vilma at linebacker will help strengthen the run defense. The secondary is still a work in progress, but again it's all about the offense. Tampa is aging, but still should be better than the rest of the division. Garcia is a solid qb, and the addition of Antonio Bryant (if he has his head on straight) should help the passing game. Carolina has upgraded their running game simply by letting Deshaun Foster walk. He only had about 5 good games in his entire career, and 4 of them came against the Atlanta Falcons. Carolina drafted Jonathan Stewart to team with DeAngelo Williams. Even with Steve Smith, I believe the passing game and defensive line will be the weak links on this team. Atlanta is rebuilding, but I don't believe they are doomed to win 1 game like some of the experts. I would not be shocked to see them win 5-6 games, especially playing in an overall weak division.
NFC North-Minnesota, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit
Minnesota should win this division, because of the 2 headed monster at tailback, and the dominate left side of their offensive line. The Vikings also have a standout run defense with a strong interior, and the pass defense should improve with the addition of Jared Allen from KC providing quarterback pressure. Tavaris Jackson and the passing game is the key to consistent offensive success. Green Bay should finish second, even with the departure of Brett Favre. I strongly believe Minnesota is a stronger team, but Green Bay should give them a nice run. Chicago and Detroit both have too many weaknesses to contend. The Bears defense was not as strong last season, and the running game took a hit when Thomas Jones left 2 seasons ago. Good new is Rex Grossman is no longer the starter, and even an average Kyle Orton should be an upgrade. Detroit has a few good pieces, especially at receiver (Calvin Johnson/Roy Williams), but a journeyman at qb(Jon Kitna), and huge questions at running back. The defense took a big hit with the loss of Shaun Rogers, and we will see how that impacts the playmaking ability of LB Ernie Sims. Bottom line is, Chicago and Detroit will be battling for the cellar.
NFC South-New Orleans, Tampa, Carolina, Atlanta
New Orleans should easily win the NFC South based on their high powered offense. The defense will do just enough not to hurt the team success. The only weakness on the offense is the running game with Duece Mcallister recovering from major knee surgery again, and the ineffectiveness of Reggie Bush between the tackles, but the high powered passing game should be enough. The defense is led by a strong defensive line, and the addition of Jonathan Vilma at linebacker will help strengthen the run defense. The secondary is still a work in progress, but again it's all about the offense. Tampa is aging, but still should be better than the rest of the division. Garcia is a solid qb, and the addition of Antonio Bryant (if he has his head on straight) should help the passing game. Carolina has upgraded their running game simply by letting Deshaun Foster walk. He only had about 5 good games in his entire career, and 4 of them came against the Atlanta Falcons. Carolina drafted Jonathan Stewart to team with DeAngelo Williams. Even with Steve Smith, I believe the passing game and defensive line will be the weak links on this team. Atlanta is rebuilding, but I don't believe they are doomed to win 1 game like some of the experts. I would not be shocked to see them win 5-6 games, especially playing in an overall weak division.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Random Thoughts
The NBA Conference Finals are in full swing, and unfortunately for me, I'm not a fan of any of the participants. All should be exciting series, stretching at least 6 games. My prediction is the Lakers in 6, and the Celtics in 7. Celtics finally lost a game at home last night, but it wouldn't shock me if the Pistons, with their turn it on turn it off mentality, give away one at home.
The Chicago Bulls are the NBA's latest draft lottery winner. If I was their gm, I would take Beasley, because I think their biggest weakness is the lack of a post presence. Rose is interesting, because he is from Chicago, but I think Hinrich is more than serviceable at the pt, despite his awful shooting performance this past season. A lineup of Hinrich, Hughes, Deng, Beasley, with Noah or Gray at center, will be a big improvement. With a bench of Gordon, Gooden, Thomas, and the nonstarter between Noah and Gray, the rotation looks very promising.
A couple of weeks ago, Oscar De La Hoya shammed the public by beating a smaller, less powerful fighter from the contender, Steve Forbes. I call the fight a sham, because I'm sure Oscar is hoping the general public will believe him when he says that Forbes was the perfect opponent to mimic Pretty Boy Floyd Mayweather. It doesn't matter that Forbes has no pop in his punches, or that his defense is god awful, but I'm sure millions of people will fork over their cash to watch the rematch between Mayweather and Oscar. This boxing fan will watch the replay on HBO the following Saturday. Just like the first fight, I give Oscar a punchers chance, and I'm not willing to pay $50+ to watch that garbage.
It was funny watching coverage of the Chris Byrd fiasco on Friday Night Fights last week. Not because Byrd was literally destroyed, but because of the comments coming from Antonio Tarver. Byrd lost about 45 lbs prior to the fight, dropping down from a career in the heavyweight division to light heavyweight. It was funny hearing Tarver say that he didn't believe the weight loss had anything to do with Byrd's performance, because Tarver used that excuse in his subpar performance after dropping a large chunk of weight before a fight. Roy Jones Jr, also used the same excuse. Yeah, I think Byrd is nowhere near the same fighter he was say 5 years ago, but to say that the weight loss didn't play a part in the stoppage is extremely dumb in my opinion. Let's give the man a couple more fights at light heavy, before we say he is done.
TROUBLEMAN
The Chicago Bulls are the NBA's latest draft lottery winner. If I was their gm, I would take Beasley, because I think their biggest weakness is the lack of a post presence. Rose is interesting, because he is from Chicago, but I think Hinrich is more than serviceable at the pt, despite his awful shooting performance this past season. A lineup of Hinrich, Hughes, Deng, Beasley, with Noah or Gray at center, will be a big improvement. With a bench of Gordon, Gooden, Thomas, and the nonstarter between Noah and Gray, the rotation looks very promising.
A couple of weeks ago, Oscar De La Hoya shammed the public by beating a smaller, less powerful fighter from the contender, Steve Forbes. I call the fight a sham, because I'm sure Oscar is hoping the general public will believe him when he says that Forbes was the perfect opponent to mimic Pretty Boy Floyd Mayweather. It doesn't matter that Forbes has no pop in his punches, or that his defense is god awful, but I'm sure millions of people will fork over their cash to watch the rematch between Mayweather and Oscar. This boxing fan will watch the replay on HBO the following Saturday. Just like the first fight, I give Oscar a punchers chance, and I'm not willing to pay $50+ to watch that garbage.
It was funny watching coverage of the Chris Byrd fiasco on Friday Night Fights last week. Not because Byrd was literally destroyed, but because of the comments coming from Antonio Tarver. Byrd lost about 45 lbs prior to the fight, dropping down from a career in the heavyweight division to light heavyweight. It was funny hearing Tarver say that he didn't believe the weight loss had anything to do with Byrd's performance, because Tarver used that excuse in his subpar performance after dropping a large chunk of weight before a fight. Roy Jones Jr, also used the same excuse. Yeah, I think Byrd is nowhere near the same fighter he was say 5 years ago, but to say that the weight loss didn't play a part in the stoppage is extremely dumb in my opinion. Let's give the man a couple more fights at light heavy, before we say he is done.
TROUBLEMAN
Friday, March 14, 2008
The Hawks
I received a "gift" from the Atlanta Hawks over the Christmas Holidays that offers me $30 towards two game tickets. I had every intention of attending a game, but after watching this team over the last couple of months, I have changed my mind. It is obvious to anyone that has ever played basketball on any level that this team is flawed.
The Mad Scientist (Billy Knight) has constructed a team of athletes who can't shoot, can't dribble, and can't defend. He trades for a point guard two months too late. His centerpiece (#2 pick Marvin Williams) is starting to look like a long shot to reach my predicted level of Shareef Abdur Rahim, which is a far cry from the Kevin Garnett comparisons I was reading before he was drafted. While Marvin still struggles to find a niche from himself on this team, the player I wanted, Deron Williams, has turned into a franchise point guard. The "other guy" (Chris Paul) has turned into Isiah Thomas Jr. I predicted that Marvin would be a fringe all-star, but even that is starting to look like a dream, and yeah I know he is only 21.
Bottom line is the ASG (Atlanta Spirit) will need to make several moves in the offseason to make this team competitive. The obvious move is to fire Billy Knight and Mike Woodson. Yeah, Woodson inherited a woefully bad team, and yes the team is still flawed, but they should be a much better team than this, and for that Woodson shoulders the blame. Another move I believe ownership will need to make is the trade of Marvin Williams or Josh Smith, along with Mike Bibby. Josh Smith is the more attractive piece, but I would prefer to hold on to him simply because of the way he impacts a game. Williams and Bibby are the two choices for me, because Bibby has an expiring contract next year, and Williams still has the "potential" to become a good player. Despite the flaws in Josh Smith's game, I would prefer to have him playing the 3, with Horford sliding over to his natural pf position. The one problem is the difficulty in finding a legitimate center in this league. The Hawks cannot continue to play an undersized pf and c together. Of course the trades do not have to be done until the trading deadline next year, which gives the new coach/gm (fingers crossed) a chance to prove me wrong, and make the pieces of this intricate puzzle fit into a good basketball team.
The Mad Scientist (Billy Knight) has constructed a team of athletes who can't shoot, can't dribble, and can't defend. He trades for a point guard two months too late. His centerpiece (#2 pick Marvin Williams) is starting to look like a long shot to reach my predicted level of Shareef Abdur Rahim, which is a far cry from the Kevin Garnett comparisons I was reading before he was drafted. While Marvin still struggles to find a niche from himself on this team, the player I wanted, Deron Williams, has turned into a franchise point guard. The "other guy" (Chris Paul) has turned into Isiah Thomas Jr. I predicted that Marvin would be a fringe all-star, but even that is starting to look like a dream, and yeah I know he is only 21.
Bottom line is the ASG (Atlanta Spirit) will need to make several moves in the offseason to make this team competitive. The obvious move is to fire Billy Knight and Mike Woodson. Yeah, Woodson inherited a woefully bad team, and yes the team is still flawed, but they should be a much better team than this, and for that Woodson shoulders the blame. Another move I believe ownership will need to make is the trade of Marvin Williams or Josh Smith, along with Mike Bibby. Josh Smith is the more attractive piece, but I would prefer to hold on to him simply because of the way he impacts a game. Williams and Bibby are the two choices for me, because Bibby has an expiring contract next year, and Williams still has the "potential" to become a good player. Despite the flaws in Josh Smith's game, I would prefer to have him playing the 3, with Horford sliding over to his natural pf position. The one problem is the difficulty in finding a legitimate center in this league. The Hawks cannot continue to play an undersized pf and c together. Of course the trades do not have to be done until the trading deadline next year, which gives the new coach/gm (fingers crossed) a chance to prove me wrong, and make the pieces of this intricate puzzle fit into a good basketball team.
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